Averages complied by the top poll-tracking sites show former President Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in Michigan with less than six month left before the 2024 presidential election.

Politicos at FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Polling, The Hill, and 270 To Win that analyze polling in the presidential election have Trump with an edge over Biden in the battleground Great Lakes State, though his lead varies by site from 3% to 0.8%.

Trump biggest lead comes from 270 To Win, with an average of five recent polls showing the former president at 45.8% support, compared to 42.8% for Biden, a 3% spread. In only one of the five polls averaged – a May 22 survey from Bloomberg and Morning Consult – did Biden lead Trump, by 1% among 704 registered voters. That poll has a margin of error of 4%.

Go Ad-Free, Get Content, Go Premium Today - $1 Trial

The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ analyzed 49 polls to give Trump the lead in Michigan 48.2% to Biden’s 46.6%, with an infographic showing the former president ahead of Biden since October. Trump’s 4-point lead in March, however, has slimmed to a 1.6-point lead today, according to the analysis.

It’s a similar situation at Real Clear Polling, which shows Trump’s 3.3-point lead in April is now a 1-point lead – 46% to 45% – based on the average of six polls since April 8. The site notes that at this time in 2016, former first lady Hillary Clinton led Trump by 8.7%, while Biden’s lead over Trump on May 24, 2020 was 5.2%.

Trump beat Clinton to become president in 2016, but ultimately lost to Biden in Michigan by less than 3% in 2020.

At FiveThirtyEight, where analysis considers both state and national polling, Trump remains the favorite in Michigan with 41.5% support, leading Biden by 0.8%. The spread is up about a half percentage point from two days ago, when the site had Trump’s lead at a mere 0.1%.

Go Ad-Free, Get Content, Go Premium Today - $1 Trial

Odds are also in Trump’s favor at the online betting site Polymarket, which gives Trump a 55% chance at retaking the White House in November, compared to a 38% chance for Biden’s re-election. Of the $134.5 million in bets placed so far, $16.4 million is on a Trump win, compared to $15.4 million betting Biden will prevail.

Overall, the status of the presidential race remains tight with encouraging trends emerging for Trump, according to Politico’s analysis of a recent New York Times poll.

“The polling found Trump making significant improvements among young voters and voters of color compared to 2020, with as many voters between the ages of 18 and 29 saying they would support the former president as back Biden,” the political site reports. “Hispanic voters were also split roughly equally, while around 20 percent of Black voters across the six states (polled) indicated support for Trump.”

CNN saw the same thing in polling in Michigan and Pennsylvania released this week.

“In Michigan … women split about evenly, Biden’s margin among voters of color is narrower and he trails Trump by significant margins among independents and young voters,” according to the news site. “In both states, Biden holds on to about 9 in 10 of his self-described 2020 supporters, while Trump keeps slightly more of his own 2020 voters.”