A new survey of Michigan CEOs finds more than twice as many believe the state’s economy will get worse through the second half of 2024 than those who believe it will improve.

Business Leaders for Michigan conducted an internal survey of members between June 18 and July 15 to gauge their outlook on the state’s economic growth, and most believe it will stay the same or decline.

“We’ve seen improvements to our short-term economic outlook, but persistent barriers to sustained long-term growth. Consumers and businesses are worried about increased costs, many of which can be impacted by state policies and talent shortages,” said Jeff Donofio, CEO of Business Leaders for Michigan. “To grow our economy, Michigan needs to continue improving its competitiveness in job and business creation and talent.”

Go Ad-Free, Get Content, Go Premium Today - $1 Trial

The survey found 73% believe Michigan’s economic outlook will remain about the same over the next six months, while 20% believe it will decline and 7% believe it will improve. In the organization’s last survey in December 2023, 53% expected the Michigan economy to remain the same, 34% predicted a decline, and 12% expected things to improve.

Only 51% of CEOs surveyed expect to increase revenues in the second half of 2024, while 38% contend they’re struggling to fill positions.

“Increased costs continue to impact overall profitability,” according to the survey results. “Also, despite the downturn in office real estate nationally, nearly 85% of respondents say they expect their real estate footprint in Michigan to remain unchanged over the next six months.”

For the broader U.S. economy, fewer members of the Business Leaders for Michigan believe it will remain the same as last year, when 73% expected the national economy to remain the same, 14% predicted a decline, and 12% expected the economy to improve. Those figures have now shifted to 54% who believe the economy will remain as is for the next six months, 24% who believe it will decline, and 22% who think it will improve.

Go Ad-Free, Get Content, Go Premium Today - $1 Trial

The survey results, released on Wednesday, largely track with other economic analysis from economists at Comerica and elsewhere.

Comerica’s state economic outlook for Michigan finds the “economy is anticipated to grow by 1.4% in 2024, slightly below last year’s growth, and in line with national economic growth.

“High interest rates and inflation, as well as negative spillovers from the national and global economies are expected to weigh on the Great Lake State’s economy in 2024,” wrote economists Bill Adams and Waran Bhahirethan.

“Payroll growth is expected to slow to around 0.7% in 2024, roughly half the rate recorded in 2023. Michigan’s unemployment rate, which fell notably as auto production normalized, is set to increase and average 4.2% next year.”

The state’s economic struggles and future outlook are tied closely to policies from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and the Democratic majority in the state legislature. Whitmer’s crushing COVID edicts meant Michigan had the 13^th slowest post-pandemic recovery among states, and has only recently eclipsed pre-pandemic jobs numbers, well behind most states.

From 2020 to 2023, Michigan’s growth in gross domestic product was 9%, 28^th among states and less than half of Florida’s rate of 20%, according to the Mackinac Center.

During that time, Democrats nixed a previously scheduled income tax cut, repealed the state’s right to work law, expanded its prevailing wage law, approved more than $4.4 billion in taxpayer subsidies for corporations, and imposed aggressive climate goals, all of which are expected to raise the cost of government and the burden on taxpayers.

Those decisions and others have landed Michigan in the bottom half of various state rankings of economic performance.

The ALEC-Laffer State Economic Competitive Index, common known as the Rich States, Poor States study, ranked Michigan 31^st for economic performance in 2024, and 43^rd among states for absolute domestic migration.

Michigan was also ranked 31^st among U.S. states in the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of North America index, which looks at labor, tax, and government spending to gauge where residents have the most freedom “to act in the economic sphere free of undue restrictions.”

U.S. News & World Report ranked Michigan’s economy 28^th, with ranks of 35^th for growth, and 42^nd overall, while a WalletHub analysis ranked the state 41^st for economic activity and 27^th for economic health.