Michigan is projected to lose more than 37,000 auto manufacturing jobs as a result of regulations from the Biden-Harris administration that will require two-thirds of new vehicles to be electric by 2032.

The expected losses, far more than any other state, are outlined in a new report from the America First Policy Institute that focuses in on the consequences of new emissions standards American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers argue are “going to feel and function like a ban” on gas-powered vehicles.

“In 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency finalized regulations restricting carbon dioxide emissions from newly built cars. It is physically impossible for conventional gasoline-powered vehicles to meet the new standards. Consequentially, the rule effectively forces automakers to shift production to electric vehicles, which do not directly use fossil fuels or emit carbon dioxide (although the power plants from which electric vehicles draw electricity typically do),” according to the AFPI report.

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“The Biden-Harris Administration estimates that, under the rule, conventional gas-powered vehicles could make up no more than one-third of newly built vehicles by 2032.”

The report notes Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, previously sponsored a Zero Emissions Vehicles Act as a senator that would have required 100% of new car sales to be emissions free by 2040.

Both the EPA regulations and Harris’ Zero Emissions Vehicles Act are expected to have a major impact on auto workers, as EVs have much fewer parts and require 30% to 40% less labor to produce. The United Auto Workers estimated in 2018 that if one fifth of new vehicle sales were electric by 2030, the shift would eliminate 35,000 of its members, or nearly 1 in 10.

The AFPI report updates those figures based on two scenarios: EVs accounting for two-thirds of new car sales, and 100% of new car sales.

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Currently, there’s the auto industry employs about 814,076 in the U.S., including 169,699 in Michigan alone.

“If EVs rise to 67% of U.S. vehicle sales the model estimates that almost 123,000 net auto-manufacturing jobs will be lost,” according to the report. “If the government completely bans the sale of conventional gas-powered cars and hybrid vehicles – as policymakers like Vice President Harris have previously proposed – the model estimates 191,000 auto manufacturing jobs would be lost.”

The losses, derived from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, would hit the Midwest the hardest, though several southern states would also see significant job cuts.

“Michigan is projected to experience the worst job losses, with about 37,000 jobs lost. About 14,000 of those jobs would occur in final assembly, while about 23,000 would be in parts manufacturing. Indiana and Ohio would suffer the next worst losses, with 24,000 and 22,000 jobs lost, respectively. Tennessee (-12,000), South Carolina (-9,000), and Alabama (-9,000) would also experience large job losses,” according to the report.

A breakdown of the best case, two-thirds scenario in Michigan shows job cuts would likely include 13,599 in motor vehicle assembly, 11,243 workers in gas engines and parts, and 12,179 workers involved in transmission and power train parts.

“If – as seems likely – EV mandates cause Tesla to expand its market share at the expense of traditional automakers, the Midwest would see even greater job losses,” the report read.

Job losses in other states would include 8,695 in South Carolina, 7,895 in Illinois, 5,223 in North Carolina, and 5,081 in Kentucky.

While the report shows the potential cost of the Biden-Harris administration’s EPA regulations, it notes “job losses from vehicle electrification have already begun,” pointing to reports from GM, Ford, and Stellantis outlining plans to cut thousands of positions each in their transition to EVs.

Other research highlighted by AFPI details billions the auto industry has already lost in the forced transition to EVs, and studies documenting the public’s resistance to the change.

“The Deloitte 2024 Global Automotive Study found that two-thirds of Americans prefer their next car purchase to be a gas-powered vehicle, 6 percent prefer an entirely battery-powered car, and 21 percent prefer a hybrid vehicle,” the report read. “A recent survey of car dealerships also found that 45 percent of dealerships reported they would not sell EVs under any circumstances.”

As Harris has attempted to walk back her support for a 100% EV mandate, former President Donald Trump has warned auto workers about the catastrophe on the horizon with the Biden-Harris EV mandate.

Trump has promised to “end the electric vehicle mandate on day one,” thereby “saving the U.S. auto industry from complete obliteration, which is happening right now, and saving U.S. customers thousands and thousands of dollars per car.”

“I just saw a poll and we have 88% of the autoworkers,” Trump said during a recent stop at a Roseville campaign office.

Trump insists EVs should remain available for folks who want them, but has promised to preserve gas-powered vehicles as an option for those who don’t.

Oakland University political scientist Dave Dulio told The Detroit News a recent survey commissioned by the news site and WDIV shows “people in Michigan are more aligned at this point with Donald Trump than they are the Biden-Harris administration on” EVs.

The telephone survey of 600 likely general election voters conducted July 22-24 found 71% have no plans to buy an EV, while 24% would consider one for their next vehicle purchase, and 5% are unsure.

Other polling shows 63% of Michiganders oppose a gas car ban, such as the Biden-Harris EPA standards.