In a departure from recent downward revisions of key government figures, such as the most recent downward revision of the jobs report by nearly a million, the FBI has revised data through 2022, showing violent crime actually increased.

The data release previously showed a 2.1% drop. But the revision, which added thousands of murders, rapes, assaults, and robberies to the figures, shows violent crime in reality went up by 4.5%.  

Media trumpeted trends showing violent crime dropping in recent years after its crest following the violent summer of 2020. 

Last month, the FBI released 2023 data, showing a decrease in murder and rape by 11% and 9%, respectively. Assault and robbery showed more modest declines, but the FBI’s equivocation on the new stats may be reason to suspect even the revision is incomplete. 

Even so, FBI data is inherently incomplete: startlingly, not all law enforcement agencies report data to the FBI’s National Incident Based Reporting System. About 7,200 law enforcement agencies’ crime data is absent from the 2022 figures, rendering the already low pre-revision figures flawed. 

In other words, crime was always higher than the statistics reported.   

Michigan law enforcement agencies fare well in reporting crime stats. As of 2022, 92% of Michigan agencies reported crime stats to NIBRS, although only 77% of agencies reported a full year’s worth of crime data. The largest jurisdiction absent from the FBI data in 2022 was Monroe County, covering about 110,000 people. 

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Michigan did, however, manage to avoid a decrease in crime since 2020, as other states supposedly had. Michigan’s apparent 1% drop in crime in 2023 still concealed the state’s higher crime rate than four years before. Crime in the Mitten in 2023 was up 3% from 2019.  

[See if your local law enforcement agency reports crime stats to the FBI].

Neighboring Ohio fared worse, according to Ohio.news. About 73% of Ohio law enforcement reported stats to the FBI, though a staggering 56% of Ohio agencies didn’t report a full year’s worth of figures. Those agencies serve 1 million Ohioans. 

Ohio media in particular lauded the apparent decrease in crime in the Buckeye State, ignoring the inherently flawed data. 

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For Ohio, there is the argument to be made that the state’s recent “Constitutional Carry” law coincides with a drop in crime. 

Across Ohio’s eight largest cities, the permitless-carry law has coincided with a drop in crimes committed with a firearm from pre-PCL years to 2023. Cincinnati and Dayton managed to buck the post-PCL trend, but Columbus, Cleveland, Parma, Akron, Canton, and Toledo all showed a drop. 

In Michigan, Kamala Harris last month touted the state’s apparent decrease in homicide from 2020, though that summer’s outbreak of violence and destruction is hardly a helpful benchmark. 

Some Michigan media attempted to “both sides” the argument on Harris’ claim that crime was down, and former President Donald Trump’s claim that it’s up. 

However, nationally, with the FBI figures quietly updated, there is no case to be made that crime hasn’t remained high under the Biden-Harris administration.