Early and absentee turnout shows the 2024 election contest between former President Donald Trump and VP Kamala Harris shaping up with a potentially wide margin for Trump — but the usual-suspect swing state counties are still in the spotlight.
Early voting in all key swing states shows a major tailwind for the Trump campaign Tuesday in the form of a precipitous drop in urban voter turnout. An internal campaign memo shows a seismic shift in turnout compared with 2020.
Data from the Trump organization shows urban turnout in Michigan down by 321,000 votes — other data from Detroit would bear out the Trump camp’s urban turnout outlook.
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Detroit had 42,900 early in person voters. In 2020 there were 256.400 ballots cast.
— Dave Bondy (@DaveBondyTV) November 4, 2024
According to the Trump campaign memo, female turnout is also down almost across the board, white rural turnout is up. In Michigan, more than 200,000 fewer women have voted so far than 2020’s result, and rural turnout is up by more than 55,000.
“Blue Wall” states, which flipped for Trump in 2016, could again prove decisive. In Pennsylvania, urban turnout is down 380,000 compared with 2020 and women down a whopping 450,000. Republicans had already beat Democrats in the party affiliation game: Democrats lost its 630,000 registered voter advantage after the GOP, remade under Trump’s leadership, pared it to 300,000.
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Early voting in Pennsylvania 2 days out. 2020 vs 2024
2020
🟦 1,587,654 (+1,040,038)
🟥 547,6162024
🟦 893,998 (+372,799)
🟥 521,199GOP are at their 2020 level turnout. Dem turnout is way down. The firewall is gone.
— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) November 4, 2024
The decline of urban and female turnout — the strongest base of support for Kamala Harris — holds in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
But Independents and in-person election-day voters will remain in the spotlight. Which way will Independent and in-person voters break Tuesday? An Emerson poll from October shows Independents breaking for Trump 49% to Harris’ 46%.
If that trend holds, Trump has Nevada in an iron grip. The GOP leads Democrats by 5% in early vote turnout. Independents and election day voters would have to make an incredible break for Harris to turn the tide.
🚨 #NEW NEVADA early voting update – GOP lead is at 45K
🔴 REP: 38.03% (+4.31) [400,082]
🔵 DEM: 33.73% [354,787]
🟡 IND: 28.24% [297,071]Data: @MichaelPruser
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
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Independent, and notably, third party voters could play an outsized role in Michigan. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson controversially kept Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on the ballot in spite of his campaign’s suit to keep him off after Kennedy endorsed Trump and joined Trump’s transition team.
Poll averages show Trump trailing Harris by six tenths of a point in Michigan. With urban turnout down 320,000 and female turnout down 204,000, tomorrow will be crucial for Democrats in Wayne County.
Betting markets show Harris holding Michigan, but losing Pennsylvania and the electoral college.
The result will depend on who shows up Tuesday, and the count.