The number of high school graduates in Michigan is projected to plummet by another 20% by 2041, marking one of the biggest declines in the nation, according to a new report.

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s recently released report Knocking at the College Door analyzes graduation and population trends to project the number of high school graduates for all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the coming years.

The report lists Michigan among five of the nation’s largest states that will account for 75% of a projected decline from what’s now 3.9 million high school students to 3.4 million in 2041, The Detroit News reports.

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While the number of high school graduates in the U.S. is expected to peak in 2025 before the 13% decline, the statistic has been in freefall in Michigan for 17 years, and the situation isn’t expected to improve.

Since 2008, Michigan has slid from 109,542 seniors who graduated in four years to 94,286 in 2023, a 14% decline that the commission expects to accelerate to 20% by 2041.

“This report, unfortunately, highlights one of the downstream impacts of Michigan’s stagnant population growth over several decades – the impact of which have been felt across the state’s economy on many measures and vividly in public school enrollments,” Craig Thiel, research director at Citizens Research Council of Michigan, told The News.

By 2041, the report predicts Michigan’s graduating class will number just 85,131, driven mostly by an exodus of Black and White graduates, which are slated to decline by 30% and 25%, respectively. Hispanic students, meanwhile, are projected to increase by 11% over the same time.

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“Yet even for the more populated states that will bear the most of the decline, the bottom will not fall out overnight,” Demaree Michelau, president of the commission, said in a statement “States and institutions have time right now to build on approaches that work in their contexts to meet current and future workforce needs.

“There are still plenty of potential students out there, including recent high school graduates who historically haven’t been well-served by our education system, those who may be leaving college short of a degree, and adult learners, including those with previous college experience.”

The report, which includes recommendations for changing the trajectory, comes as Michigan scrambles to address the issue through a variety of programs aimed at moving more students into college and career programs, from a Michigan Reconnect, to the Michigan Achievement Scholarship, to a Community College Guarantee, though Thiel suggests schools will need to do more to offset the losses and address Michigan’s stagnant population growth.

“Competition to enroll this shrinking pool of potential in-state students will require our higher education institutions to recruit from other states and abroad to train and prepare the workforce for the state’s current and future needs,” he said.

That shift is already in the works, with out of state students at the University of Michigan outnumbering Michiganders in 2023, a trend that continued in this year with out of state students outnumber natives by 700, MLive reports.

The situation is a product of Michigan’s slumping population growth, which ranked 49^th among states since 2020, a reality experts suggest is tied to state policies such as the repeal of right to work legislation, and an unfriendly business climate.

Both the population stagnation and declining graduates are big problems for the state’s ability to attract talent, prompting serious concerns from state officials, business groups, and others that are outlined in reports produced by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s Growing Michigan Together Council last year.

“Since Michigan does not do well in attraction, retention is extremely important,” demographer Kurt Metzger told The News. “If you know your home pie is getting smaller, you either expand the home pie by reaching different demos, or you recruit heavily outside the state.

“Our university and community colleges are going to be hit if we have smaller numbers of high school graduates. The whole higher education system in Michigan is going to face a smaller base. MSU and UM will continue to do well. The Westerns and GVSUs (Grand Valley State University) are competing for out-of-state students,” he said. “That’s not easy.”

Overall, the new report suggests eight states can expect enrollment declines that eclipse 20%, with most starting in 2025 and continuing through 2041. They include California (-29%), Illinois (-32%), Michigan (-20%), New York (-27%), and Pennsylvania (-17%). Those states will account for 75% of the decline in high school graduates nationwide by 2041.

In total, the report predicts declines in 38 states, and increases in 11: District of Columbia (+31%), Tennessee (+15%), South Carolina (+14%), North Dakota (+13%), Florida (+12%), Delaware (+8%), South Dakota (+7%), North Carolia (+6%), Texas (+5%), Montana (+5%), and Alabama (+2%).