Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is confident the state will meet her goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, but a leading climatologist suggests it’s not going to happen.

John R. Christy, professor of atmospheric and earth sciences at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, recently pointed Michigan Capitol Confidential to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that shows Michigan consumes too much power compared to what it produces to meet the benchmark.

The data shows in 2022 Michigan consumed 83% of its energy from fossil fuels, with the bulk of the remaining coming from nuclear, as well as coal, hydropower and about 7% from renewables.

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“Because of renewables’ unreliable dependence on weather and high expense, the only way to provide non-carbon power that people need is nuclear – and that’s only if nuclear produced enough electricity to charge all the electric vehicles too,” Christy wrote to MCC.

“For an average second, MI consumed energy at the rate of 90,000,000,000 joules, or a rate of 90 gigawatts. How can renewables in MI create an average of 90 gigawatts (much more during peak hours)? MI would need to switch to all EVs and add about 10 times more nuclear power than it has now.”

The most recent 2023 EIA data show renewables comprised 11% of Michigan’s total electricity generation, with wind energy supplying 64% of that slice.

“Wind energy accounts for a small but increasing share of Michigan’s electricity generation and accounted for 7% of the state’s total generation in 2023,” according to the EIA. “This was a slight decline from 2022, due to below normal wind speeds, despite 337 megawatts of new wind power generating capacity that came online in 2023.”

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The EIA notes that overall “Michigan consumes almost five times more energy than it produces and ranks 10th among the states in both population and total energy consumption.”

Christy is only the most recent expert to suggest Whitmer’s ambitious MI Healthy Climate Plan is unrealistic.

A recent report from the Mackinac Center for Public Policy came to the same conclusion after analyzing electricity plans of 38 large, investor-owned utilities in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, including 32 that pledged to go net zero by 2050 or sooner.

“The Midcontinent Independent Systems Operator, the grid operator for much of the Midwest, projects that by 2032, none of the five Great Lakes states in its territory will have enough electricity capacity to meet even the most conservative projection of demand load,” according to the executive summary.

“The main element of net-zero plans is to build massive amounts of new wind and solar generation. Despite these additions, MISO expects overall grid capacity to decrease,” researchers wrote. “That’s because states and utilities are simultaneously closing coal plants and some natural gas and nuclear facilities. How much electricity wind and solar generate, however, depends on the weather, so reliability will suffer.”

The report breaks down the situation in each state, providing a profile on climate plans and examining the current and future states of energy generation for each major utility, and the state as a whole.

“If MISO’s information is accurate, Michigan will face broad electricity generation shortfalls by 2027 and ever larger deficits by 2032 and 2042,” according to the report.

“Michigan’s energy policy sets the state up for failure. The state’s net-zero mandates and requirements for wind and solar strain reliable resources. Michigan’s goals are some of the most aggressive in the Great Lakes region,” the state’s summary read. “Meanwhile, the large utilities are mostly marching in lockstep toward similar objectives. The blackouts the state will suffer are inevitable given these poor decisions.”

Other potential complications for Whitmer’s climate goals include efforts to court power-hungry AI data centers, her government forced transition to EVs, and growing public opposition to repeated rate hike requests from the state’s monopoly utility providers to finance the MI Healthy Climate Plan.